To mark history, I am sitting here on Thursday, November 5th, two days after election day, and officials have yet to call the final results. As expected Biden has more overall votes – so he has the popular vote as Hillary did in 2016.
The outstanding issues so far are that some complaints have been submitted in Michigan claiming that ballots weren’t counted if they were in a certain style of pen. Apparently one or more ballot counters took the rules to the extreme there and what is typically a red state just turned blue – and Trump’s team thinks something is wrong with that.
Arizona and their 11 electoral votes are assumed to go to Biden because he has a 60K+ lead. But, as of now, they are only at 88% counting and they think a high percentage of the mail-in ballots from a certain typically republican area will be more red than blue. Of the 350,000 or so ballots that still need to be counted, about 60% of them would need to be for Trump in order for the award of those electoral votes to move to him, making it a much closer race.
Nevada is closer – under ten thousand votes are the difference between the two candidates. Without knowing where the remaining ballots are coming from, it is difficult to make a prediction there. I’m sure Trump will challenge whatever happens.
He is currently filing lawsuits with the federal courts and the Supreme Court but a lawyer friend of mine mentioned to me this morning that the federal courts aren’t likely to step in and interfere in state election operations. Trump’s team seems to think that is the best strategy to ensure nothing is left on the table.
Each party is going to claim there was some kind of fraud whether they have proof or not but I have yet to hear of any major disputes by Biden’s team. I guess when you are in the lead it is less important but I wouldn’t just sit idle if I were them – otherwise Trump is going to find some way to win. You only have to look at the votes that weren’t allowed in Bush vs. Gore that ultimately gave Bush the presidency.
Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Georgia look like they are going to Trump but with so many mail-in ballots for Biden, anything is possible. I’ve been trying to figure out if more Democrats vote via mail-in ballots and it seems there are differing opinions on that. There have definitely been more mail-in ballots than ever and the overall number of votes is the highest it has ever been. But, it is difficult to determine if the remaining ballots will be more red or blue.
It is a nail biter.
One thing is for sure, if Biden wins and starts trying to reverse changes that Trump made, the Senate could pose a challenge for that. Biden mentioned that his efforts to make changes in the past was strongly effected by the fact that Congress was red. Not being an expert on what Congress can authorize vs. what needs approval by the Senate also, it will be interesting to follow that over the next 4 years, if Biden wins.
My biggest fear, if Trump wins, is that he might just feel – like a lot of second term presidents have felt – that they can do more because they aren’t working for re-election. That means Trump will likely do a lot more grey area stuff and will definitely do more things that he might not otherwise do if he were worried about a re-election.
His campaign essentially stops if he is re-elected.
Both candidates age is a factor and I am definitely thinking, at age 77, that it will be surprising if Biden can last 4 more years. He will be the oldest president ever and it isn’t an easy job. He is just a heart attack away from a not-so-great alternative would be promoted to run the country.
It is going to be an interesting rest of the year.